Polo, advisory 28

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 271456
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
800 AM MST Sun Sep 27 2026
 
...POLO A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AS POWERFUL POLO APPROACHES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 113.9W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Santa Rosalia
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to
Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Bahia Kino
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to
Bahia San Juan Bautista
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder
of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 113.9 West. Polo is moving
toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the
northeast on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to
approach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Monday, move
across the peninsula Monday night and then approach northwestern
mainland Mexico by early Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are
possible over the next day or two, but Polo is forecast to remain a
strong hurricane when it reaches Baja California Sur on Monday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
along the west coast of Baja California Sur by Monday afternoon,
with tropical storm conditions possible in the southern portion of
the warning area by tonight into early Monday. These conditions
are expected to spread northward during the day on Monday and then
eastward across Baja California Sur by Monday evening. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in mainland
northwestern Mexico on Tuesday.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum totals
of 8 expected across portions of Sonora.  This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur
during the next couple of days. These swells will spread northward
along the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through the
remainder of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 271457
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
800 AM MST Sun Sep 27 2026
 
Polo continues to have a pretty healthy structure on geostationary
satellite imagery this morning, with very cold cloud tops associated
with robust eyewall convection. The most recent F18 SSMIS microwave
pass showed a mostly closed eyewall, albeit with some erosion on the
east side, likely due to some residual easterly vertical wind shear.
Both the subjective and objective intensity estimates over the past
6 h have increased somewhat, with the latest SATCON, DPRINT, and 
DMINT estimates between 106-113 kt. Thus, the initial intensity is 
nudged up slightly to 110 kt for this advisory. A NOAA P-3 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route and will provide 
updated in-situ data on Polo this afternoon.
 
Polo continues to make its turn more northward, with the latest
estimated motion at 345 degrees at 10 kt. The hurricane should soon
turn northward and the northeastward over the next 12-24 h as it is
steered between the deep-layer ridging that is centered over Mexico
and a mid-latitude shortwave trough that will soon move into
California. It is this short-wave that is expected to capture Polo
as it reaches the coast of Baja California Sur, leading to further
acceleration as the hurricane turns northeastward. While the track
guidance this cycle is very tightly clustered near the previous
forecast track, but are somewhat faster along this track. Thus the
latest NHC track forecast has been moved slightly faster and
roughly splits the difference between the reliable HFIP Corrected
Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI)
aids. Its is worth noting there remains some along-track spread in
the ensemble guidance, so the exact timing of landfall is more
uncertain than usual in the 24-48 h time frame.
 
The intensity forecast also has some challenges. Polo has maintained 
a fairly healthy appearance while its been dealing with light to 
moderate easterly vertical wind shear. The latest SHIPS guidance now 
shows the shear decreasing over the next 12-24 h, and given the 
slightly stronger initial intensity, the latest NHC intensity 
forecast is higher than the previous one. This forecast is on the 
high end of the interpolated intensity guidance, and now shows Polo 
reaching the coast of the Baja California Peninsula as a 95 kt 
hurricane. It is worth mentioning the latest HAFS-B raw model output 
shows Polo could retain major hurricane intensity at landfall. Some 
weakening should occur as it moves over the rugged terrain of Baja 
California, but it is increasingly likely that Polo's second 
landfall in mainland Mexico will also be as a (weaker) hurricane. 
Rapid weakening is forecast thereafter as it moves inland over 
Mexico with Polo becoming post-tropical or dissipating by 72 h.
 
Polo is expected to become a remnant low and then dissipate before
it reaches the southern U.S., but distant moisture associated with
it and Odalys will be transported into the southwestern United
States late this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly
contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region.
See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more
information.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Polo is forecast to approach the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula on Monday as a hurricane, and a Hurricane
Warning is in effect for that region. Tropical storm conditions
could reach portions of the coast as soon as tonight or early
Monday, making further preparations difficult. These conditions
will likely spread across Baja California through Monday. A storm
surge is likely, especially in areas of onshore winds.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja
California Sur tonight into Tuesday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of
the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next
few days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 21.3N 113.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 22.7N 113.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 24.5N 113.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 26.3N 112.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 28.6N 110.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  30/0000Z 31.5N 107.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin