Polo, advisory 27

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 270855
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
200 AM MST Sun Sep 27 2026
 
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND MAINLAND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 113.6W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning along the
east coast of Baja California Sur from Loreto to Santa Rosalia
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch along the 
coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Bahia Kino.
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning along
the east coast of Baja California Sur south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning along
the east coast of Baja California Sur north of Santa Rosalia to
Bahia San Juan Batista.
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch in
mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Santa Rosalia
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to
Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Bahia Kino
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to
Bahia San Juan Bautista
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder
of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 113.6 West. Polo is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the
northeast on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to
approach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Monday, move
across the peninsula Monday night and then approach northwestern
mainland Mexico by early Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is expected during the
next few days, but Polo is forecast to remain a hurricane when it
approaches Baja California Sur on Monday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
along the west coast of Baja California Sur by Monday afternoon,
with tropical storm conditions possible in the southern portion of
the warning area by tonight into early Monday. These conditions
are expected to spread northward during the day on Monday and then
eastward across Baja California Sur by Monday evening. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in mainland
northwestern Mexico on Tuesday.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur
during the next couple of days. These swells will spread northward
along the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through the
remainder of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 270857
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
200 AM MST Sun Sep 27 2026
 
The satellite presentation of Polo has remained fairly steady since
the time the NOAA aircraft finished its mission about 7 hours ago.
There are still hints of an eye in geostationary and microwave
satellite images. The latest TAFB Dvorak currently intensity was
6.5/127 kt with 5.5/102 kt for the final-T number.  Objective
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have been running in the 105-110
kt range.  The initial intensity is held at 105 kt for this
advisory.
 
Polo has turned toward the north-northwest, with the current motion 
estimated at 330/9 kt.  A turn toward the north is expected later 
today, and then northeastward on Monday as the cyclone continues to 
move around the ridge and becomes increasingly affected by a mid- to 
upper-level trough moving in from the northwest. The largest source 
of uncertainty in the forecast continues to be the forward speed of 
Polo as it makes its expected northeastward turn between the 
aforementioned synoptic features. The model spread remains higher 
than unusual between 48 and 72 h, more so for the along-track 
forward speed of the storm after landfall. The NHC forecast follows 
the path of the GDMI and HCCA, but is a bit slower than those 
models.  This forecast is essentially on top of the previous NHC 
forecast.
 
Polo will continue to travel through an environment of fairly weak 
vertical wind shear and sea-surface temperatures near 29C for the 
next 24 h, but will be moving into a somewhat drier airmass.  By 
hour 36, which is about 6 hours before landfall, southwesterly 
vertical wind shear will increase.  Due to the favorable conditions 
until almost before the Baja California landfall, the NHC forecast 
is near the higher end of the guidance suite through hour 36, 
showing only gradual weakening.  Thereafter, increasing wind shear 
and land interaction will cause rapid weakening.  Although waters 
are warm in the Gulf of California, Polo is not expected to 
restrengthen there due to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear. 
 The intensity forecast for the 2nd landfall (in mainland Mexico) 
is tricky.  There is some possibility that Polo could still be at
hurricane strength for the 2nd landfall, as suggested by the latest 
HAFS-A forecast.  Polo should dissipate inland over northern Mexico 
by hour 72.
 
Polo is expected to become a remnant low and then dissipate before
it reaches the southern U.S., but distant moisture associated with
it and Odalys will be transported into the southwestern United
States late this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly
contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region.
See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more
information.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Polo is forecast to approach the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula on Monday as a hurricane, and a Hurricane
Warning is in effect for that region. Tropical storm conditions
could reach portions of the coast as soon as tonight or early
Monday, making further preparations difficult. These conditions
will likely spread across Baja California through Monday. A storm
surge is likely, especially in areas of onshore winds.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja 
California Sur tonight into Tuesday. This rainfall may produce 
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain.
 
3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of
the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next
few days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 20.3N 113.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 21.6N 114.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 23.4N 114.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 25.1N 113.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 26.8N 111.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  29/1800Z 28.9N 109.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 31.3N 106.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen