Polo, advisory 26
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 26
Public advisory
National Hurricane Center · public advisory 26 · issued Sep 27, 2:44 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 270244 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 800 PM MST Sat Sep 26 2026 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND POLO IS STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 113.1W ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the west coast of Baja California Sur from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe. The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the east coast of Baja California Sur from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The west coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The west coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The east coast of Baja California Sur, from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. Interests in portions of northwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Polo. Additional watches will likely be required for the Sonora Coast tomorrow. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 113.1 West. Polo is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A northward turn is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Monday, move across the peninsula Monday night and then approach northwestern mainland Mexico by early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds as measured by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft are 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is expected during the next few days, but Polo is forecast to remain a hurricane as it approaches Baja California Sur on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 949 mb (28.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area along the west coast of Baja California Sur by Monday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible in the southern portion of the warning area by Sunday night into early Monday. These conditions are expected to spread northward during the day on Monday and then eastward across Baja California Sur by Monday evening. RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. Swells will also spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Forecast discussion
National Hurricane Center · forecast discussion 26 · issued Sep 27, 2:45 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 270245 TCDEP2 Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 800 PM MST Sat Sep 26 2026 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Polo during the last few hours and found that although it has weakened, the system remains a major hurricane. The highest flight-level winds measured by the plane on its last pass through Polo were 114 kt, while the minimum pressure measured by a dropsonde was 949 mb. Based on these data, the intensity of Polo is set at 105 kt. The NOAA aircraft also confirmed that Polo's inner core has expanded, and reported that the eyewall of the hurricane is open on the north side of the circulation. Polo is still heading northwestward, moving around the western edge of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. Polo will turn northward tomorrow, and then northeastward on Monday as it continues to move around the ridge and becomes increasingly affected by a mid- to upper-level trough moving in from the northwest. The largest source of uncertainty in the forecast continues to be the forward speed of Polo as it makes its expected northeastward turn between the aforementioned synoptic features. The model spread remains higher than unusual between 48 and 72 h, and confidence in this portion of the forecast is low. The NHC forecast is still generally close to GDM and HCCA, which are on the faster end of the guidance, and only minor adjustments were made to the official forecast with this advisory. Continued steady weakening is expected during the next day or two given Polo's degraded structure and the expectation that it will continue to encounter moderate vertical wind shear and move into a drier surrounding environment. However, Polo is still expected to be a hurricane when it approaches Baja California Sur on Monday. Rapid weakening is likely once the hurricane makes landfall, and Polo will likely dissipate over mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. Polo is expected to become a remnant low and then dissipate before it reaches the southern U.S., but distant moisture associated with it and Odalys will be transported into the southwestern United States late this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information. Key Messages: 1. Polo is forecast to approach the west coast of the Baja California peninsula on Monday as a hurricane, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for that region. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the coast as soon as Sunday night or early Monday, making further preparations difficult. These conditions will likely spread across Baja California through Monday. A storm surge is likely, especially in areas of onshore winds. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja California Sur Sunday night into Tuesday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 19.3N 113.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 20.7N 113.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 22.4N 114.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 24.2N 113.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 25.8N 112.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 27.6N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 29.7N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
