Polo, advisory 25

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 262033
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
200 PM MST Sat Sep 26 2026
 
...POLO TURNS NORTHWESTWARD AS A POWERFUL HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY...
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 112.5W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Eugenia to Santa Fe
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
Watches will likely be required for the east coast of the Baja
California Peninsula later today. Interests in portions of
northwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Polo.
Watches may be required for that area tonight or early Sunday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 112.5 West. Polo is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northward motion is 
expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northeast on 
Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the 
west coast of Baja California Sur on Monday, move across the 
peninsula Monday night and then approach northwestern 
mainland Mexico by early Tuesday. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 
couple of days, however Polo is expected to be a strong hurricane 
when it approaches Baja California Sur on Monday. 
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Monday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible in the
southern portion of the watch area by Sunday night into early
Monday. These conditions are expected to spread northward during the
day on Monday.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja 
California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding 
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, 
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic 
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. Swells will also
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 262034
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
200 PM MST Sat Sep 26 2026
 
SAR data valid this morning that arrived after the issuance of the 
last advisory indicated that Polo's inner-core has expanded, 
possibly due to an eyewall replacement cycle. A combination of a 
slight increase in easterly wind shear over the past 12 hours  
(10-15 kt according to both SHIPS diagnostics and UW-CIMSS 
analysis) and the likely eyewall replacement cycle are likely 
causing Polo to weaken. Intensity estimates vary greatly, from a 105 
kt estimate with that SAR pass to over 140 kt from the ADT. Taking 
the available data as a whole, the intensity is set at 125 kt for 
this advisory, which is also fairly close to recent estimates from 
of the newer techniques from UW-CIMSS: AiDT, DPRINT and DMINT. A 
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Polo 
later today, which should provide more information about the 
structure and intensity of the hurricane.
 
The hurricane has turned northwestward as it moves around the
western end of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico.
Polo will gradually turn northward, and then northeastward over
the next two days as it continues to move around the ridge and is
steered increasingly by a mid- to upper-level trough approaching
from the northwest. There is an unusually large spread in the track
models, primarily associated with Polo's forward speed. The AI
guidance, including GDM, show a notably faster forward motion than
many of the dynamical models, with some of the hurricane regional
models even forecasting the hurricane to stall offshore of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula. No changes of note were made
to the track forecast with this advisory and the NHC forecast still
leans toward the AI models and HCCA, but confidence in that forecast
is not particularly high due to the high model spread.
 
The models have better agreement on the intensity forecast and 
nearly unanimously depict Polo steadily weakening over the next 48 
hours. Some short-term intensity fluctuations will be possible 
during that period, but a combination of moderate shear and a drier 
environment along the forecast track should prevent it from 
significantly restrengthening. It is worth noting that Polo is still 
expected to be a strong hurricane when it approaches Baja California 
Sur. More rapid weakening is likely beyond 60 hours, as the shear is 
expected to increase substantially and Polo is forecast to begin 
interacting with land.
 
Polo is expected to become a remnant low and then dissipate before
it reaches the southern U.S., but distant moisture associated with
it and Odalys will be transported into the southwestern United
States late this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly
contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region.
See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more
information.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Polo is forecast to approach the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula on Monday as a hurricane, and a Hurricane
Watch is in effect for that region. Tropical storm conditions
could reach portions of the coast as soon as Sunday night or early
Monday, making further preparations difficult. A storm surge will
be possible, especially in areas of onshore winds.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja 
California Sur Sunday night into Tuesday. This rainfall may produce 
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain.
 
3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of
the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next
several days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 18.7N 112.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 19.8N 113.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 21.4N 114.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 23.2N 114.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 24.8N 113.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  29/0600Z 26.4N 111.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 72H  29/1800Z 28.0N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 96H  30/1800Z 31.2N 105.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky