Polo, advisory 14

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 240243
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
900 PM CST Wed Sep 23 2026
 
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE POLO MOVING SLOWLY
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF 
GUERRERO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 102.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Manzanillo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located 
near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 102.4 West. Polo is moving 
toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the 
west-northwest is expected on Thursday and Friday, followed by a 
northwestward motion on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of 
Polo is expected to remain offshore of southwestern Mexico through 
Thursday morning before moving farther out to sea.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional near-term strengthening is 
possible, and Polo is expected to remain a powerful major hurricane 
for the next few days.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 923 mb (27.26 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
along the coast of Mexico tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area along the coast of Mexico late
tonight and on Thursday.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero through Thursday. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is
possible in coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco through Thursday.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Swells will spread
northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and toward Baja
California Sur on Friday and into the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal
flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240245
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
900 PM CST Wed Sep 23 2026
 
The changes to the satellite presentation of Polo this evening 
indicate the hurricane has significantly strengthened. The symmetric 
eye has gradually cleared out and warmed, and it is now surrounded 
by a thick ring of very deep convection with cloud top temperatures 
of -75 to -80 deg C. The objective and subjective satellite 
intensity estimates have quickly increased this evening as a result, 
and the initial intensity is set at 140 kt, making Polo a category 5 
hurricane once again.
 
Polo has taken a slow north-northwestward jog this evening, but the 
long-term motion remains northwestward (320/5 kt). The short-term 
track forecast has been nudged slightly northward to account for the 
northward jog. A mid-level ridge over Texas and northern Mexico is 
expected to gradually build westward during the next couple of days, 
which should steer Polo to the northwest and west-northwest away 
from mainland Mexico through Friday night. Then, an upper-level 
trough is forecast to approach the west coast of the United States 
this weekend. This will weaken the steering ridge and cause Polo to 
turn toward the northwest and north later in the forecast period, 
bringing the center toward Baja California Sur. However, there is 
still quite a bit of along- and cross-track spread regarding the 
details of this anticipated turn. The long-range portion of the 
track forecast remains close to the previous one, closely following 
the HCCA and TVCN aids through 96 h.
 
Now that Polo has completed an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), some 
additional near-term strengthening could occur with conducive 
environmental and oceanic conditions in place. The updated NHC 
forecast accounts for this potential and lies on the upper end of 
the guidance. Of course, strong hurricanes like Polo can also be 
susceptible to intensity fluctuations related to internal dynamic 
processes like ERCs that are difficult to predict. Regardless, there 
is high confidence that Polo will remain a powerful major hurricane 
for the next few days. Vertical wind shear is forecast to increase 
over the hurricane in 48-72 h, and a somewhat faster rate of 
weakening is shown thereafter. Overall, the NHC intensity forecast 
follows the multi-model trends and lies on the higher end of the 
envelope for most of the period.
 
The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
westward from Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across portions
of the coast within the warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to
Manzanillo tonight into early Thursday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0300Z 16.0N 102.4W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 16.5N 103.7W  150 KT 175 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 16.9N 105.6W  145 KT 165 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 17.1N 107.5W  140 KT 160 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 17.3N 109.4W  135 KT 155 MPH
 60H  26/1200Z 17.9N 111.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 19.2N 112.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 22.5N 113.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 25.5N 113.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart