Polo, advisory 13

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 232048
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
300 PM CST Wed Sep 23 2026
 
...POLO NOW MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
...OUTER RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 102.4W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southwestern Mexico coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system as additional
watches and warnings could be necessary later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 102.4 West. Polo is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Thursday. A general west-northwestward
motion is forecast on Friday and over the weekend. On the forecast
track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of
southwestern Mexico through Thursday morning before it moves
farther out to sea.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Slow strengthening is possible during the
next day or so.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 932 mb (27.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the coast of Mexico this afternoon and tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the coast
of Mexico late tonight and on Thursday.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero through Thursday. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is
possible in coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco through Thursday.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip current
conditions, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from
your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 232049
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
300 PM CST Wed Sep 23 2026
 
Satellite imagery this afternoon suggests that Polo seems to be at
or near the end of its eyewall replacement cycle, as the eyewall
cloud tops have gotten colder during the past several hours, and the
eye is gradually becoming more distinct. The various satellite
intensity estimates are lower than they were six hours ago, but they
are no longer falling. The initial intensity is lowered to 125 kt,
and for the moment that could still be a little generous. The
hurricane's outer rainbands continue to affect the coast of Mexico.
 
The hurricane is now moving faster toward the northwest at 310/6 kt. 
Water vapor imagery suggests a mid-level ridge is building over 
Texas and northern Mexico, and the dynamical models forecast this 
ridge to build westward to the north of Polo starting on Thursday as 
an upper-level trough near Baja California weakens and lifts out. 
This evolution should result in Polo moving northwestward for 12 h 
or so, followed by a west-northwestward motion with some increase in 
forward speed. There have been changes in the forecast guidance 
since the last advisory for the forecast period after 60 h. The 
cluster of models that was forecasting a northward motion has 
shifted a touch to the west, while the cluster that was forecasting 
a more northwestward motion has shifted more northward. So, while 
there is still spread and uncertainty, the guidance is a little more 
clustered than before. The biggest changes are the ECMWF and the 
UKMET, which are now part of the northward moving cluster.  The new 
forecast track for this period follows the northward cluster to a 
position west of Baja California by 120 h.  Overall, the new track 
is similar to the previous track through 72 h and a little west of 
the previous track after that.

The intensity guidance continues to suggest a little decrease in 
intensity during the next 12-24 h followed by slight strengthening. 
However, since Polo is completing its eyewall replacement, it is 
possible that intensification could occur at any time. So, the new 
intensity forecast now shows re-intensification during the next 24 
h.  After 48 h, the environment gradually becomes less favorable 
due to slightly stronger shear and the possibility of some dry air 
entrainment. The guidance forecasts slow weakening during this 
time, and the new intensity forecast follows suit. The new forecast 
is again near the upper edge of the guidance for the first 60 h and 
then lies closer to the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
While the center of Polo is forecast to remain offshore, outer
rainbands should spread across southwestern Mexico during the next
day or so, producing areas of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force
winds.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions 
of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce 
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain.
 
2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of 
southwestern Mexico from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo, and 
a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect west of that to Playa Perula. 
Interests in these areas should closely monitor updates to the 
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 15.7N 102.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 16.2N 103.4W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 16.7N 105.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 16.9N 106.9W  135 KT 155 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 17.2N 108.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 60H  26/0600Z 17.7N 110.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 18.9N 112.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 22.2N 113.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 24.3N 113.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven