Polo, advisory 11

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 230834
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
300 AM CST Wed Sep 23 2026
 
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF POLO BEGINNING TO REACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO..
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 101.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 
hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southwestern Mexico coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system as additional
watches and warnings could be necessary later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located near 
latitude 15.0 North, longitude 101.4 West. Polo is moving toward the 
north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A sharp turn to the northwest is expected 
to begin later today followed by a general west-northwestward motion 
later this week and over the weekend. On the forecast track, the 
core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern Mexico 
during the next day or two, although it is forecast to remain 
offshore.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected, but
Polo is expected to remain a very powerful major hurricane during
the next few days.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 918 mb (27.11 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the coast of Mexico later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area along the coast of
Mexico on Thursday.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacn through
Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4
inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and
Jalisco through Thursday.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip current
conditions, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from
your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230834
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
300 AM CST Wed Sep 23 2026
 
Satellite images indicate that Polo remains a powerful major
hurricane. The cyclone continues to maintain a distinct, circular,
and clear eye. However, the convection in the eyewall is not quite
as intense as it had been over the past 24 hours. Although there
have not been any recent microwave images available, there are
still signs in geostationary satellite data that the system has a
double eyewall structure. The initial intensity is set at 135 kt,
which is in line with the latest satellite intensity estimates.
The far northern bands are brushing up against the southwestern
coast of Mexico, and ASCAT data show winds to tropical storm force
just off the coast.
 
The cyclone has moved little over the past several hours, however,
a building mid-level ridge over Mexico and the south-central U.S.
should cause Polo to turn northwestward or west-northwestward later
today. This motion should take the center of the hurricane just off
the coast of southwestern Mexico through Thursday. Even though the
intense core of Polo should stay offshore, outer rainbands are
likely to spread across southwestern Mexico during the next day or
so, producing areas of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds.
Polo should pass well south of the Baja California Peninsula Friday
and Saturday, and then likely turn northward when it reaches the
western periphery of the ridge. Little change was made to the 
previous track forecast, and this prediction is near a blend of the 
HCCA, GDMI, and TVCA aids.
 
Fluctuations in strength seems likely over the next day or so, due 
to internal dynamics, while the major hurricane remains in favorable 
environmental conditions. However, a gradual weakening trend is 
expected after that time due to an increase in easterly vertical 
wind shear and slightly drier air. Nonetheless, Polo is forecast to 
remain a powerful hurricane during the next several days. The NHC 
intensity forecast lies generally near the middle of the guidance 
envelope.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of 
southwestern Mexico, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect 
westward to Playa Perula. Interests in these areas should closely 
monitor updates to the forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0900Z 15.0N 101.4W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 15.4N 102.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 16.2N 103.4W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 16.5N 105.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 16.7N 107.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
 60H  25/1800Z 16.9N 108.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 17.3N 110.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 19.4N 112.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 22.4N 113.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi