Polo, advisory 10
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 10
Public advisory
National Hurricane Center · public advisory 10 · issued Sep 23, 2:50 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 230250 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 900 PM CST Tue Sep 22 2026 ...POLO CONTINUES DRIFTING SLOWLY AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 101.3W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southwestern Mexico coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system as additional watches and warnings could be necessary tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 101.3 West. Polo is drifting toward the northeast near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow but sharp turn to the northwest is expected to begin tonight followed by a general west-northwestward motion over the next few days. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern Mexico through the middle of this week, although it is forecast to remain offshore. Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next few days, though Polo is expected to remain a very powerful major hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 905 mb (26.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the coast of Mexico by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the coast of Mexico by Thursday. RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacn through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and Jalisco through Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip current conditions, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Forecast discussion
National Hurricane Center · forecast discussion 10 · issued Sep 23, 2:53 AM UTCsource ↗
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 230253 TCDEP2 Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 900 PM CST Tue Sep 22 2026 The last few fixes this afternoon from the NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggested that Polo was in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). Flight level winds from the inner eyewall had been decreasing in addition to rising pressures and somewhat less pronounced warm core in the center. The secondary eyewall was also seen on polar-orbiter imagery with a much larger eyewall taking shape on both the SSMIS and WSFM microwave passes compared to this morning. The satellite structure of Polo also looks less pristine due to the ongoing ERC, with some erosion and expansion of the cold cloud tops that surround the eye. Based on the earlier aircraft data and evolution of satellite imagery since that time, the initial intensity is being set at 145 kt this advisory, still making Polo a very dangerous category 5 hurricane. One-minute mesosector imagery over Polo has been very useful to monitor its motion, and the inner eye of the storm has been wobbling, with the best guess motion an northeastward drift at 45 degrees at 1 kt. The track guidance remains insistent that Polo will soon undergo a slow but sharp turn to the northwest and west-northwest as a deep-layer ridge centered over east Texas continues to build in. In fact, the track guidance this cycle shows even more of a leftward bend in 48-72 h as the ridge moves westward with the hurricane. While the latest NHC track forecast is very close to the prior one for the first 36 h, it is a little slower given the current motion, and then further south and west beyond 36 h. This track will still take Polo close to, but just offshore of the southwestern Mexican coast, where tropical storm conditions are still expected. The latest NHC forecast lies closest to the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). Toward the end of the forecast period, the ridge steering Polo is forecast to become eroded by a combination of Tropical Storm Odalys located to its west, and a digging mid-latitude trough moving into the western United States coast. Thus, Polo will likely turn back northwestward or even northward by the end of the forecast period, though this has also been shifted west of the prior track following the leftward shift in the guidance this cycle. There still remains significant uncertainty in Polo's track in the 4-5 day period. Environmental conditions remain very favorable over Polo currently. Vertical wind shear is forecast to remain below 10 kt for the next 24 h, with plenty of nearby deep-layer moisture. In addition, Polo is over the warmest sea-surface temperatures in the basin, which also extend vertically well below the surface, which should limit ocean upwelling of the slow moving hurricane. However, the big question mark is how the ongoing ERC will evolve in the next 12-24 h. The last few microwave images already show a larger closed eyewall taking shape. There are also hints of the ERC successfully completing in the next 24 h in the most recent raw output from the 18z HAFS-A run. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast shows some short-term fluctuations in intensity both down and up over the next 24-36 h, though it is difficult to forecast these inner-core structural changes with much confidence. SHIPS guidance thereafter continues to indicate an increase in easterly shear as the ridging overhead intensifies, and the NHC intensity forecast shows gradual weakening beginning by that time, with a somewhat faster rate of weakening now shown in days 4-5. However, this intensity forecast remains on the high side of the guidance except for the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA), which is a good 20-30 kt higher than the rest of the guidance this cycle. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of southwestern Mexico, and the Tropical Storm Watch is in effect westward to Playa Perula. Interests in these areas should closely monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 14.7N 101.3W 145 KT 165 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 15.0N 101.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 15.9N 102.8W 145 KT 165 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 16.4N 104.3W 140 KT 160 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 16.6N 106.1W 135 KT 155 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 16.8N 108.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 17.0N 110.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 18.2N 112.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 20.9N 113.7W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
