Tropical Storm Nolo Advisory Number 46

000
WTPA32 PHFO 020236
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nolo Advisory Number  46
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Thu Oct 01 2026
 
...NOLO CONTINUES TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 166.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM WNW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to Maro
Reef, including near French Frigate Shoals
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from west of Maro
Reef to Lisianski Island
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Additional watches and warnings may be required for additional
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument later
this week.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was
located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 166.3 West. Nolo is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to the 
west and then west-northwest is expected to occur over the next 
several days. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast to occur, and Nolo is expected to 
become a hurricane this weekend. 
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals today, with
tropical storm conditions spreading westward from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef by tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible from west of Maro Reef to Lisianski Island starting
Saturday morning.
 
SURF: Large surf associated with Nolo will continue to affect the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next several
days. These large waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying
atolls, especially from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Gibbs
 

000
WTPA42 PHFO 020237
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  46
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Thu Oct 01 2026

Nolo continues to gradually become better organized. While 
the storm's structure is still lacking across the southern 
semicircle with drier air prevailing, deep convection is 
re-igniting close to the center of circulation, displaced slightly 
to the northwest. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates 
from JTWC and HFO rated Nolo at 45 and 55 kt, respectively, while 
UW-CIMSS objective estimates show a wide spread of 29 to 50 kt. 
With ASCAT data from around 2100 UTC showing max winds around 46 
kt, and no significant changes occuring with Nolo's structure, the 
initial intensity was held steady at 50 kt. 

The initial motion was set at 310/10 kt. Nolo has nearly doubled in 
speed over the last six hours. This is likely due high pressure 
downstream of the system moving to Nolo's north, allowing the 
cyclone to be picked up by stronger, subtropical steering flow. 
Track guidance exhibits a fair amount of agreement on Nolo shifting 
closer to due west over the next 24 to 48 hours, before turning back 
to the west-northwest over the weekend while gaining forward speed. 
Little was changed with the latest NHC track forecast compared to 
the previous forecast. 

Nolo is expected to enter a favorable environment defined by 
warming SSTs and decreasing vertical wind shear. This will allow 
for gradual restrengthening through much of the forecast period, 
and Nolo may become a major hurricane as it approaches the 
International Dateline. The latest NHC intensity forecast does 
adjust Nolo's rate of strengthening heading into the weekend down 
slightly, mostly as an effort to keep it more in line with the 
guidance median, however Nolo's peak strength was raised slightly 
to bring it more into agreement with HCCA guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 23.2N 166.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 23.4N 166.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 23.5N 168.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 23.5N 170.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 23.6N 173.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  04/1200Z 24.1N 177.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 24.8N 179.6E  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 26.3N 173.1E  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 27.3N 165.5E   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Gibbs