Tropical Storm Nolo Advisory Number 45

000
WTPA32 PHFO 012043
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nolo Advisory Number  45
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Thu Oct 01 2026
 
...NOLO POISED TO RE-STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 165.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to Maro
Reef, including near French Frigate Shoals
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from west of Maro
Reef to Lisianski Island
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Additional watches and warnings may be required for additional
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument later
this week.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 165.5 West. Nolo is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general 
motion is expected today, followed by a westward turn with a large 
increase in forward speed by the weekend. On the forecast track, 
Nolo should remain south of the main atolls of the 
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Nolo is forecast to become a hurricane by the weekend, and could 
become a major hurricane over the weekend.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals today, with
tropical storm conditions spreading westward from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef later today.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible from west of Maro Reef to Lisianski Island starting
Saturday morning.
 
SURF: Large surf associated with Nolo will continue to affect the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next several
days. These large waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying
atolls, especially from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 

000
WTPA42 PHFO 012044
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  45
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Thu Oct 01 2026

Nolo is gradually becoming better organized.  Moderate-to-deep 
convection has made a comeback near the center, with a large spiral 
band noted in the eastern semicircle.  Additionally, microwave data 
indicate that the low-level core of the system remains fairly 
intact.  The current intensity is held at 50 kt as the satellite 
estimates haven't quite caught up with the earlier scatterometer 
pass.  
 
The storm continues to move slowly to the northwest.  A subtropical 
high over the west-central Pacific is forecast to build north of 
the cyclone during the next few days.  This evolution is expected 
to cause Nolo to turn westward by tomorrow and pick up a lot of 
forward speed over the weekend while moving generally west- 
northwestward, south of the main atolls of the northwestern 
Hawaiian Islands.  Similar to the last advisory, the new forecast 
is nudged a bit the north to come into better agreement with the 
Google DeepMind and HCCA aids.  

After the recent failed extratropical transition, it will take a 
bit of time to re-build the warm-core structure aloft, so only a 
gradual strengthening is shown for the next 24 h.  However, with 
convection near the center already, combined with the forecast drop 
in shear and increase in SSTs during the next 2-3 days, these 
factors suggest that a significant re-strengthening episode is 
coming.  Since the low-level core structure is already present, 
rapid intensification is a distinct possibility by the weekend, and 
the new forecast is raised from the previous one, showing Nolo as 
a major hurricane when it crosses the International Dateline.  
Increasing shear could cause some weakening at the end of the 
forecast period.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 22.3N 165.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 22.8N 166.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 23.2N 167.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 23.2N 168.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 23.1N 171.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 23.4N 175.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 24.1N 178.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 25.7N 175.0E  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 26.2N 167.9E   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake