Tropical Storm Nolo Advisory Number 42

000
WTPA32 PHFO 010244
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nolo Advisory Number  42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Wed Sep 30 2026
 
...NOLO EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES JUST 
SOUTH OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 164.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to Maro
Reef, including near French Frigate Shoals
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Additional watches and warnings may be required for additional
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument later
this week.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was 
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 164.8 West. Nolo is 
moving drifting toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h). An increase in 
forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some gradual strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days 
as Nolo moves westward away from the Papahanaumokuakea Marine 
National Monument.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals today, with
tropical storm conditions spreading westward from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef by Thursday.
 
RAINFALL: Outer bands east of Nolo will produce an additional 1 to 
3 inches of rain across Kauai, with isolated maximum storm totals 
of 15 inches. This rainfall could still  produce instances of 
flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain and 
water-logged soil.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Nolo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF: Large surf associated with Nolo will continue to affect the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next several
days. These large waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying
atolls, especially from French Frigate Shoals to Nihoa. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Gibbs
 

000
WTPA42 PHFO 010245
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Wed Sep 30 2026

Nolo's structure has degraded quite a bit over the last couple of 
hours. The storm has lost its defined center, and convection across 
the southern flank has weakened substantially based on satellite 
imagery. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC 
both assigned Nolo a Final T-Number of 2.5, and UW-CIMSS objective 
intensity estimates range from 27 to 42 kt. Based on these data, 
Nolo's initial intensity was lowered slightly to 40 kt. 

The storm's forward motion has slowed to a crawl, and initial motion 
was set at 270/1 kt, although confidence is low on Nolo's exact 
motion at 0300 UTC since its center position has hardly moved over 
the last two hours. Nolo's lack of motion is being driven by strong 
high pressure to its northwest and an upper-level trough to its 
northeast. Global models generally depict Nolo increasing in forward 
speed as it moves westward over the course of the next several days, 
as an upper-level low over the west Pacific weakens the 
aforementioned high. So long as the current synoptic pattern is in 
place, however, Nolo may appear nearly stationary at times. Little 
was changed in the latest track forecast, other than to nudge it 
toward the latest HCCA guidance.

Nolo continues to be in a hostile environment defined by strong 
vertical wind shear, relatively dry mid-level air, and marginal 
SSTs. Guidance generally depicts shear backing off as the storm 
moves westward over warming SSTs, however, Nolo may struggle to 
re-intensify in the meantime. The latest NHC intensity forecast 
keeps Nolo's strength relatively steady overnight, before 
environmental conditions are expected to allow for a gradual 
increase in intensity starting late Thursday onward. This forecast 
lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 21.5N 164.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 21.6N 165.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 21.9N 165.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 22.3N 166.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 22.6N 167.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  03/1200Z 22.7N 170.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 22.8N 173.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 24.2N 179.8E   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 25.5N 173.1E   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Gibbs