Tropical Storm Nolo Advisory Number 41

000
WTPA32 PHFO 302040
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nolo Advisory Number  41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Wed Sep 30 2026
 
...NOLO CONTINUES TO BRING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...

 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 164.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 170 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to Maro
Reef, including near French Frigate Shoals
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Additional watches and warnings may be required for additional
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument later
this week.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was 
located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 164.7 West. Nolo is 
moving toward the south near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn back toward the 
west is expected later today, with a faster forward speed in a 
couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Little change in intensity is expected over the next day or so, 
followed by re-intensification later this week.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals today, with
tropical storm conditions spreading westward from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef by Thursday.
 
RAINFALL: Outer bands east of Nolo will produce an additional 2 to 6 
inches of rain across Kauai and Niihau through Thursday, with 
maximum storm totals of 15 inches across Kauai. This rainfall could 
produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Nolo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF: Large surf associated with Nolo will continue to affect the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next several
days. These large waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying
atolls, especially from French Frigate Shoals to Nihoa. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Adams
 

000
WTPA42 PHFO 302040
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Wed Sep 30 2026
 
Significant wind shear has caused Nolo to rapidly weaken over the 
past day, with the remaining deep convection displaced well away 
from the fully exposed center of circulation. The tropical storm has 
also become increasingly vertically shallow and is currently 
wobbling, likely in response to the low-level steering flow. The 
latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 35-45 kt, while 
objective intensity estimates ranged from 31-41 kt. The initial 
intensity is set at a potentially generous 45 kt for this advisory.
 
Nolo is currently situated between a strong upper-level low to the 
northeast and a building ridge centered to the northwest. Despite 
this pattern, the tropical storm is drifting toward the 
south-southeast, and additional small wobbles in the motion are 
possible over the next day or so. A turn back toward the west is 
forecast by Thursday, followed by a slow forward motion over the 
subsequent day as the upper-level low pulls away from Nolo and the 
ridge expands north of the cyclone. By this weekend, Nolo is 
expected to accelerate as a new area of high pressure develops to 
its north. On the forecast track, Nolo is expected to cross the 
International Date Line around days 4-5. The latest NHC forecast has 
been shifted to the left from the previous one to account for 
the southward initial motion, and is also closer to the latest HCCA 
and Google DeepMind solutions.

Very hostile environmental conditions are expected to inhibit any 
strengthening over the next day or so. Beyond 24-36 h, Nolo is 
forecast to move over warmer ocean temperatures and into an 
environment with substantially lower wind shear, supporting gradual 
re-strengthening. However, persistent dry mid-level air could limit 
the rate of intensification despite the otherwise favorable 
conditions. The latest NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle 
of the guidance envelope, with Nolo expected to regain hurricane 
strength in a couple of days. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 21.6N 164.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 21.8N 165.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 21.9N 165.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 22.3N 166.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 22.6N 167.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  03/0600Z 22.8N 168.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 23.0N 171.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 24.1N 178.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 25.5N 174.9E   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Adams