Tropical Storm Nolo Advisory Number 40

000
WTPA32 PHFO 301458
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nolo Advisory Number  40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Wed Sep 30 2026
 
...NOLO CONTINUES TO BRING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 165.0W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Watch for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National 
Monument from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef has been upgraded 
to a Tropical Storm Warning.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to Maro
Reef, including near French Frigate Shoals
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. 
 
Additional watches and warnings may be required for additional
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument later
this week.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 165.0 West. Nolo is
moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) across the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. A westward to 
west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected 
over the next couple of days, followed by a faster motion by this 
weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Little change in strength is expected over the next day or so, 
followed by re-intensification later this week.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals today, with
tropical storm conditions spreading westward from French Frigate 
Shoals to Maro Reef by Thursday.
 
RAINFALL: Outer bands east of Nolo will produce an additional 2 to 
6 inches of rain across Kauai and Niihau through Thursday, with
maximum storm totals of 10 inches across Kauai. This rainfall could
produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Nolo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF: Large surf associated with Nolo will continue to affect the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next several
days. These large waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying
atolls, especially from French Frigate Shoals to Nihoa. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Adams
 

000
WTPA42 PHFO 301501
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Wed Sep 30 2026
 
Significant southwesterly wind shear continues to cause rapid 
weakening of Nolo this morning. The center of circulation is 
completely exposed with only minimal convection persisting to the 
northeast of the center. Nolo has also drifted south of due 
west over the past several hours, and the initial position has been 
adjusted accordingly. Recent intensity estimates have fallen 
substantially and range from 35-55 kt. The initial intensity is set 
at a potentially generous 50 kt for this advisory.
 
Nolo is drifting toward the west-southwest, steered by a building 
mid-level ridge to the northwest and a strong, positively-tilted 
trough located to the northeast. Given Nolo's rapid weakening over 
the past day or so, the cyclone is forecast to drift slowly toward 
the west or west-southwest over the next day or so as it becomes 
increasingly steered by the low-level flow. Beyond 48 h, as Nolo 
re-intensifies and becomes vertically deeper, a generally westward 
motion at a faster forward speed is expected as the ridge builds to 
the north, and Nolo is expected to cross the International Date 
Line by day 5. The latest NHC forecast has been shifted to the 
left from the previous forecast to account for the adjustment in 
the initial position, which is also closer to the latest HCCA 
and Google DeepMind solutions. 
 
Prohibitive southwesterly wind shear and a dry mid-level environment 
have caused rapid weakening over the past day or so, and similar 
conditions are expected through the next day. Beyond that time as 
the strong trough moves away from Nolo, decreasing shear and 
slightly more favorable upper-level winds should support gradual 
strengthening through the rest of this week and into this weekend. 
However, the continued dry mid-level environment could limit the 
rate of intensification despite warm sea surface temperatures. The 
latest NHC intensity forecast has been raised slightly beyond 60 h 
and Nolo is expected to regain hurricane strength around this time. 
The intensity forecast remains near the middle of the guidance 
envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 22.0N 165.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 22.1N 165.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 22.1N 165.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 22.2N 166.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 22.6N 167.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  03/0000Z 22.9N 168.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 23.1N 170.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 24.0N 176.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 25.7N 176.6E   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Adams