Tropical Storm Nolo Advisory Number 39

Public advisory

Central Pacific Hurricane Center · issued Sep 30, 8:36 AM UTC · source


000
WTPA32 PHFO 300836
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nolo Advisory Number  39
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Tue Sep 29 2026
 
...NOLO CONTINUES TO BRING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
...NOLO NOW TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 164.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Hurricane Warning from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals has been
changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to
French Frigate Shoals
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case
overnight through Wednesday.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Additional watches and warnings may be required for additional
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument later
this week.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 164.6 West. Nolo is 
moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). Nolo is moving 
west-northwestward across the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National 
Monument and is expected to turn westward overnight or early 
Wednesday. A generally westward motion is expected through the 
latter part of the week.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast over the next day 
or so, followed by some re-intensification during the latter part of 
this week.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical 
Storm Warning area from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals overnight 
through Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the 
Tropical Storm Watch area from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef by 
Thursday.
 
RAINFALL: Outer bands east of Nolos track will produce 3 to 6 
inches of rain across Kauai and Niihau through Thursday. This 
rainfall could produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially 
in areas of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Nolo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF: Swells generated by Nolo will affect south- and west-facing
shores of the main Hawaiian Islands for the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Large surf associated with Nolo will continue to affect
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next several
days. These large waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying
atolls, especially from French Frigate Shoals to Nihoa. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs 
 

Forecast discussion

Central Pacific Hurricane Center · issued Sep 30, 8:37 AM UTC · source


000
WTPA42 PHFO 300837
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  39
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Tue Sep 29 2026
 
Nolo continues to rapidly weaken under the influence of strong 
southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air. Satellite 
imagery shows that the low-level circulation center is now fully 
exposed, with limited deep convection confined north of the center. 
The latest subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from JTWC 
and HFO are 55 kt, while objective intensity estimates range from 50 
to 60 kt. Given the degraded satellite presentation and decreasing 
intensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt.

Nolo has begun its anticipated west-northwestward turn, with an 
initial motion of 290/5 kt. As a ridge builds north of the cyclone, 
Nolo is forecast to turn more toward the west overnight and into 
Wednesday. A temporary westward to west-southwestward motion is 
possible during the next day or so as the weakening system becomes 
increasingly influenced by the lower-level steering flow. 
Thereafter, as Nolo re-strengthens, it is forecast to gain some 
latitude while continuing generally westward through about day 4, 
followed by a west-northwestward motion by day 5 as it crosses the 
International Date Line. The track guidance remains in decent 
agreement, despite some continued along- and cross-track spread. The 
latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous 
prediction and lies near the HCCA and GDMI aids.

Strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air are 
expected to continue affecting Nolo during the next day or so, 
resulting in additional weakening. The shear is forecast to relax 
thereafter, allowing environmental conditions to become more 
favorable for re-strengthening. However, the dry mid-level 
environment could limit the rate of intensification despite warm sea 
surface temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very 
similar to the previous advisory, showing continued weakening during 
the next day or so, followed by little change in strength through 
Thursday before re-strengthening begins. Nolo is forecast to regain 
hurricane intensity by Friday and strengthen somewhat thereafter. 
The intensity forecast remains near the middle of the guidance 
envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 22.4N 164.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 22.6N 164.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 22.7N 165.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 22.6N 165.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 22.8N 166.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  02/1800Z 23.1N 167.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 23.4N 168.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 24.1N 174.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 26.1N 178.7E   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs