Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number 38

Public advisory

Central Pacific Hurricane Center · issued Sep 30, 2:33 AM UTC · source


000
WTPA32 PHFO 300233
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number  38
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Tue Sep 29 2026
 
...NOLO SLOWING DOWN WHILE BRINGING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 164.2W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to
French Frigate Shoals
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Additional watches and warnings may be required for additional
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument later
this week.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nolo was located 
near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 164.2 West. Nolo is moving 
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). Nolo will continue moving 
northward across the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument this 
evening while gradually slowing down. A turn toward the west is 
expected by Wednesday, followed by a generally westward motion 
through the latter part of the week.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is forecast over the next couple of days,
followed by some re-intensification during the latter part of this
week.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals by Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions ongoing. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the Tropical Storm Watch area from French Frigate Shoals to
Maro Reef by Thursday.

RAINFALL: Outer bands east of Nolos track will produce 3 to 6
inches of rain across Kauai and Niihau through Thursday. This
rainfall could produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially
in areas of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Nolo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF: Swells generated by Nolo will affect south- and west-facing
shores of the main Hawaiian Islands for the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Large surf associated with Nolo will continue to affect
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next several
days. These large waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying
atolls, especially from French Frigate Shoals to Nihoa. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs 
 

Forecast discussion

Central Pacific Hurricane Center · issued Sep 30, 2:36 AM UTC · source


000
WTPA42 PHFO 300236
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  38
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Tue Sep 29 2026
 
Nolo continues to weaken this afternoon due to strong southwesterly 
vertical wind shear and dry air entraining into the circulation. 
Satellite imagery shows the low-level center becoming partially 
exposed, with deep convection decreasing in coverage and cloud tops 
warming. The latest subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates 
from JTWC and HFO are both 65 kt, while objective estimates range 
from 65 to 75 kt. Given the degraded satellite presentation and 
decreasing intensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 
75 kt.

Nolo has started to slow down and is moving northward, or 360/5 kt. 
This trend will continue tonight into Wednesday as it interacts with 
a mid- to upper-level trough. As a mid-level ridge builds north of 
Nolo, a sharp westward turn is forecast by early Wednesday, followed 
by a generally westward motion through the remainder of the week. 
The latest track guidance remains in decent agreement on this, 
although some cross-track spread persists. The latest GDMI and HCCA 
guidance has shifted southward from the previous cycle, taking Nolo 
slightly farther away from French Frigate Shoals, Maro Reef, and 
Lisianski Island as it moves westward. The ECMWF and GFS remain on 
the southern side of the guidance envelope, while the GDMI and HCCA 
are on the northern side. The latest NHC track forecast is similar 
to the previous prediction and lies between these solutions. Nolo is 
forecast to accelerate westward later this week and into the weekend 
as the ridge becomes more established north of the cyclone.

Strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air are 
expected to continue affecting Nolo during the next 36 to 48 h. 
These hostile environmental conditions should result in additional 
weakening, and Nolo is forecast to become a tropical storm on 
Wednesday. The shear is expected to relax in about 48 to 60 h, 
allowing environmental conditions to become more favorable for 
re-strengthening. However, the dry mid-level environment could limit 
the rate of intensification despite the warm sea surface 
temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very similar to 
the previous advisory, showing continued weakening during the next 
couple of days before gradual re-strengthening begins. Nolo is 
forecast to regain hurricane intensity by Friday and strengthen 
somewhat thereafter. The intensity forecast remains near the middle 
of the guidance envelope.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 22.0N 164.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 22.4N 164.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 22.5N 164.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 22.6N 165.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 22.7N 166.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  02/1200Z 22.9N 166.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 23.1N 168.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 23.8N 173.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 25.3N 179.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs