Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number 37

Public advisory

Central Pacific Hurricane Center · issued Sep 29, 8:36 PM UTC · source


000
WTPA32 PHFO 292036
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number  37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Tue Sep 29 2026
 
...NOLO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE 
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 164.2W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to
French Frigate Shoals
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of 
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside 
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life 
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Additional watches and warnings may be required for additional
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument later
this week.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nolo was located 
near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 164.2 West. Nolo is moving 
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). On the forecast track, the 
center of Nolo will remain well southwest and west of the main 
Hawaiian Islands. Nolo will continue to move northward across the 
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument today. On Wednesday, Nolo 
will slow significantly and turn toward the west, then continue 
generally westward through the latter part of the week.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is forecast over the next couple of days,
followed by some re-intensification during the latter part of this
week.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning 
area in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument by Wednesday, 
with tropical storm conditions ongoing. Tropical storm conditions 
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in the 
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument by Thursday.
 
RAINFALL: Outer bands east of Nolos track will produce 3 to 6 
inches of rain across Kauai and Niihau through Thursday. This 
rainfall could produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially 
in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Nolo, 
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic 
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF: Swells generated by Nolo will affect south- and west-facing
shores of the main Hawaiian Islands for the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Large surf associated with Nolo will continue to affect
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next several
days. These large waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying
atolls, especially from French Frigate Shoals to Nihoa. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 

Forecast discussion

Central Pacific Hurricane Center · issued Sep 29, 8:37 PM UTC · source


000
WTPA42 PHFO 292037
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Tue Sep 29 2026
 
Nolo's satellite appearance continues to degrade this morning as it 
succumbs to strong vertical wind shear. Drier air has also started 
to entrain into the inner core of the system, eroding southern 
portions of the circulation and causing cloud tops to warm. 
Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, with the latest 
Current Intensity (CI) estimates from JTWC and UW-CIMSS ranging 
between 75 and 90 kt. Given the degraded satellite presentation and 
these estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt for this 
advisory.

Nolo has continued to slow down and is moving northward, or 360/7 
kt. A continued northward motion with a decreasing forward speed is 
expected through tonight. In about 24 h, the system is forecast to 
decelerate further as it interacts with a mid- to upper-level 
trough. Following this interaction, a mid-level ridge is expected to 
build to the northwest of Nolo, resulting in a sharp westward turn. 
There continue to be along-track differences among the track 
guidance. The better-performing HCCA and Google DeepMind (GDMI) 
models are slower than the global models and depict a much slower 
turn and subsequent re-acceleration. Toward the end of the forecast 
period, Nolo is expected to move generally westward across the 
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. The latest NHC track 
forecast has once again been slowed down through 72 h and trends 
toward the latest HCCA and GDMI aids.

The moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear is expected to continue 
impacting Nolo for the next 36-48 h or so, with dry mid-level air 
also entraining into the circulation. This should result in a steady 
weakening trend, and Nolo is forecast to become a tropical storm 
during that time. The shear is expected to relax in 48 to 60 h. 
Although the system remains over warm sea surface temperatures, the 
dry mid-level environment may inhibit the rate of re-strengthening. 
The latest NHC intensity forecast follows these trends, showing 
steady weakening in the short term before the system re-strengthens 
into a hurricane by the end of the forecast period. This prediction 
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 21.3N 164.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 22.1N 164.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 22.4N 164.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 22.4N 165.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 22.5N 165.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  02/0600Z 22.7N 166.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 23.0N 167.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 23.4N 171.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 24.9N 178.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly