Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number 35

Public advisory

Central Pacific Hurricane Center · issued Sep 29, 8:49 AM UTC · source


000
WTPA32 PHFO 290849
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number  35
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
...CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE NOLO ENTERS THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS
OF THE MONUMENT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 164.3W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to
French Frigate Shoals
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch may be required for additional portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument by Tuesday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nolo was located
near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 164.3 West. Nolo is moving
toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Nolo
will remain well southwest and west of the main Hawaiian Islands.
Nolo will continue to move northward across the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Nolo will slowly
turn toward the west, and continue generally westward through the
latter part of the week.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Nolo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast over the next couple of
days, followed by some re-intensification during the latter part of
this week.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument by Wednesday,
with tropical storm conditions likely by Tuesday.
 
RAINFALL: Outer bands east of Nolos track will produce 3 to 6
inches of rain across Kauai and Niihau between Tuesday and Thursday.
This rainfall could produce areas of flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Nolo will affect south- and west-facing
shores of the main Hawaiian Islands for the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Large surf associated with Nolo will continue to affect
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next several
days.  These large waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying
atolls, especially from French Frigate Shoals to Nihoa. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Mahoney
 

Forecast discussion

Central Pacific Hurricane Center · issued Sep 29, 8:51 AM UTC · source


000
WTPA42 PHFO 290851
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  35
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
Hurricane Nolo remains a 100 kt major hurricane for now, in
agreement with the objective and subjective satellite intensity
estimates. The cyclone continues to endure moderate to strong
vertical wind shear, a consequence of an approaching mid- to
upper-level trough located to its northwest. An RCM-3 Synthetic
Aperture Radar (SAR) overpass from around 0455 UTC informed the
present analysis of the wind radii and provided a helpful center
fix.
 
The cyclone is now moving to the north-northwest at 330/13 kt. A
more northward motion is expected through Tuesday in response to the
mid- to upper-level trough. By Wednesday, Nolo is forecast to slow
down dramatically as it interacts with and ultimately merges with
the trough. Significant along-track uncertainty remains beyond 36
hr. The differences in forward motion depend largely on how quick
Nolo completes the merger with the trough and the strength of a
mid-level ridge that will build to the northwest. By the latter part
of this week, the mid-level ridge should steer the system generally
westward and nearly parallel to the northwestern Hawaiian Islands
within the Papahanaumokuakea National Monument. The track forecast
blends the previous one toward the latest HCCA and GDM guidance, and
attempts to reconcile these many complicated steering features.
 
Vertical wind shear is expected to increase even further, and this 
should continue to ventilate Nolo with dry and stable air over the 
next couple of days. The new intensity forecast shows Nolo weakening 
to a tropical storm by 48 hr, though this could happen sooner. 
Beyond 60 hr, Nolo is forecast to re-intensify as the vertical wind 
shear subsides, but dry mid-level atmospheric conditions could limit 
the pace and magnitude of intensification. The intensity forecast is 
at the upper-end of the guidance envelope at 12 hr due to recent 
trends in infrared satellite imagery, and after that time lies 
within the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 20.0N 164.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 21.3N 164.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 22.5N 164.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 22.7N 164.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 22.6N 165.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  01/1800Z 22.7N 166.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 23.1N 167.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  03/0600Z 23.4N 168.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  04/0600Z 24.1N 174.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Mahoney