Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number 34

Public advisory

Central Pacific Hurricane Center · issued Sep 29, 2:43 AM UTC · source


000
WTPA32 PHFO 290243
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number  34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
...NOLO STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT STARTING ON TUESDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 163.7W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to
French Frigate Shoals
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch may be required for additional portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument by Tuesday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nolo was located 
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 163.7 West. Nolo is moving 
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north 
is expected tomorrow. On the forecast track, the center of Nolo will 
remain well southwest and west of the main Hawaiian Islands. Nolo 
will approach the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument on 
Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Nolo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast over the next couple of 
days, followed by some re-intensification during the latter part of 
this week.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument by Wednesday,
with tropical storm conditions likely by tomorrow.
 
RAINFALL: Outer bands east of Nolos track will produce 3 to 6
inches of rain across Kauai and Niihau between Tuesday and Thursday.
This rainfall could produce areas of flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Nolo will affect south- and west-facing
shores of the main Hawaiian Islands for the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Large surf associated with Nolo will affect the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument beginning later today.
These large waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying atolls,
especially from French Frigate Shoals to Nihoa. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Mahoney
 

Forecast discussion

Central Pacific Hurricane Center · issued Sep 29, 2:44 AM UTC · source


000
WTPA42 PHFO 290244
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
Hurricane Nolo is being disrupted by strong vertical wind shear. The
GPM GMI microwave imagery received earlier today showed some tilt
between the low- and mid-level vortex, in addition to erosion in
portions of the southern eyewall. The satellite presentation on Nolo
this evening shows evidence of this disrupted inner core, with the
eye filling in on both visible and infrared imagery. Subjective
intensity estimates from PHFO and PGTW and the objective estimates
from UW-CIMSS range from 110-127 kt. Based on the quick
deterioration of the cyclone on satellite imagery, the
intensity for this advisory is set to 110 kt.
 
The current forward motion of the hurricane is 315/11 kt, as the
cyclone continues to turn in response to an upper level trough
located to its northwest. A general northward motion is expected
through tomorrow. Thereafter, the upper level trough is expected to
merge with the hurricane. This will dramatically slow Nolo's forward
motion as it approaches the islands of the Papahanaumokuakea
National Monument. Later this week, a ridge is forecast to build
northwest of Nolo and begin to steer the system westward and nearly
parallel to the northwestern Hawaiian Islands within the monument.
The track forecast is largely an update of the previous one, follows
the latest HCCA and GDM guidance, and attempts to reconcile the many 
complicated steering features.
 
The new intensity forecast shows a faster pace of weakening than the
previous forecast, and is nudged toward the latest HCCA and GDM
guidance. Vertical wind shear is expected to increase even more
through 72 hr, which could cause Nolo to weaken to tropical storm
strength during that time. Beyond 72 hr, the shear is forecast to
subside, and Nolo could re-intensify at a gradual pace due to dry
mid-level atmospheric conditions. The intensity forecast is within
the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 18.8N 163.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 20.2N 164.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 21.9N 164.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 22.6N 164.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 22.7N 164.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  01/1200Z 22.6N 165.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 22.8N 166.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 23.4N 167.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 23.8N 172.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Mahoney