Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number 33

Public advisory

Central Pacific Hurricane Center · issued Sep 28, 8:48 PM UTC · source


000
WTPA32 PHFO 282048
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number  33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT STARTING ON TUESDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 163.1W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to
French Frigate Shoals
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of 
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside 
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life 
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch may be required for additional portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nolo was located
near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 163.1 West. Nolo is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is forecast later today, with a turn toward the north
expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nolo will
remain well southwest and west of the main Hawaiian Islands but will
approach the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Nolo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. A gradual weakening trend is likely to begin
tonight, followed by faster weakening through the middle of the
week.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb (27.55 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument by Wednesday,
with tropical storm conditions likely by Tuesday.
 
RAINFALL: Outer bands east of Nolos track will produce 3 to 6
inches of rain across Kauai and Niihau between Tuesday and Thursday.
This rainfall could produce areas of flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Nolo will affect south- and west-facing 
shores of the main Hawaiian Islands for the next few days. These 
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Large surf associated with Nolo will affect the 
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument beginning later today. 
These large waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying atolls, 
especially from French Frigate Shoals to Nihoa. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Adams
 

Forecast discussion

Central Pacific Hurricane Center · issued Sep 28, 8:49 PM UTC · source


000
WTPA42 PHFO 282049
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Mon Sep 28 2026

Westerly wind shear and increasing mid-level dry air are beginning 
to take a toll on Nolos structure this morning. Recent visible and 
infrared satellite imagery show a sharp gradient along the western 
side of the cold cloud tops surrounding the eye, while cloud tops 
are warming just east of the increasingly ragged eye. In addition, 
recent GPM GMI microwave imagery suggests that the southeastern 
portion of the eyewall may be beginning to open up. Recent 
subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates have also 
decreased slightly, ranging from 123-127 kt. Given the degraded 
satellite presentation and the lower intensity estimates, the 
initial intensity is set at 125 kt for this advisory.

Nolo is beginning to turn toward the northwest as it moves along the 
southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high centered 
north of the main Hawaiian Islands. The hurricane is forecast to 
turn toward the north on Tuesday as an intensifying upper-level low 
approaches from the northwest. The track forecast becomes more 
complex by midweek, as the strength and track of this low will play 
a significant role in determining Nolos subsequent motion. A 
stronger low would likely be less progressive and pull Nolo farther 
north, while a weaker and more transient low would favor a faster 
turn toward the west. Recent model guidance has trended toward the 
latter solution, and this trend is reflected in the updated 
forecast. The official NHC track forecast has therefore been 
adjusted to the left of the previous forecast and is slightly slower 
after 36 h, bringing it closer toward the latest HCCA and GDM 
guidance.

A gradual weakening trend is expected over the next day or so as 
Nolo encounters increasing westerly wind shear and cooler sea 
surface temperatures. Beyond 24 h, the approaching upper-level low 
is expected to produce significantly stronger shear, likely 
resulting in more rapid weakening. Nolo could briefly fall below 
hurricane strength around the middle of this week. Thereafter, as 
the upper-level cyclone moves away from Nolo and its influence 
diminishes, increasingly favorable upper-level winds and warmer 
waters could support some restrengthening. The latest NHC forecast 
is near the middle of the model intensity consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 17.7N 163.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 19.0N 163.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 20.8N 164.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 22.0N 164.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 22.4N 164.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  01/0600Z 22.5N 164.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 22.7N 165.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 23.2N 167.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 23.8N 171.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Adams