Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number 32

Public advisory

Central Pacific Hurricane Center · issued Sep 28, 2:52 PM UTC · source


000
WTPA32 PHFO 281452
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number  32
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 162.3W
ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to
French Frigate Shoals.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch may be required for additional portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Nolo was located 
near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 162.3 West. Nolo is moving 
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the 
northwest is forecast later today, with a turn toward the north 
expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nolo will 
remain well southwest of the main Hawaiian Islands but will approach 
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Nolo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. A gradual weakening trend is likely to begin 
tonight, followed by faster weakening through the middle of the 
week.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 929 mb (27.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument by Wednesday,
with Tropical Storm conditions likely by Tuesday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Nolo will affect south-facing shores of
the main Hawaiian Islands for the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Large surf associated with Nolo will affect the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument beginning later today. These large waves
will likely inundate some of the low-lying atolls, especially from
French Frigate Shoals to Nihoa. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Adams
 

Forecast discussion

Central Pacific Hurricane Center · issued Sep 28, 2:53 PM UTC · source


000
WTPA42 PHFO 281453
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  32
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
Increasing westerly wind shear is beginning to affect the structure 
of Nolo this morning. Recent infrared satellite imagery indicate a 
slight increase in asymmetric convection, with a decrease in 
convection to the north and east of the well-defined and very warm 
eye, and a larger area of convection to the south and west. Recent 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 6.5/127 kt, while 
objective intensity estimates range from 121-133 kt. However, Nolo 
continues to have an annular structure, so the intensity has likely 
changed little since the previous advisory. Therefore, the initial 
intensity is maintained at 135 kt for this advisory. 
 
Nolo is moving toward the west-northwest, or 290/11 kt, along the 
southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge centered well north of the 
Hawaiian Islands. A turn toward the northwest then north is expected 
through the next 36-48 h as an intensifying upper-level low 
approaches the hurricane from the northwest. The track forecast 
becomes more complicated around midweek, as the progression and 
strength of the aforementioned upper-low will influence the motion 
of Nolo. A stronger low will likely be less progressive and pull 
Nolo farther north, while a weaker and more transient low will 
result in a faster turn toward the west. The latest NHC forecast 
follows the latter scenario and calls for Nolo to turn back toward 
the west-northwest then west around midweek, with this general 
motion continuing into this weekend. This is consistent with the 
previous forecast advisory, and is similar to the HCCA and Google 
DeepMind solutions. 

The major hurricane has likely peaked in strength while over very 
warm waters and beneath favorable upper-level winds. However, 
increasing wind shear due to the aforementioned upper-level low 
should support gradual weakening by tonight, followed by more rapid 
weakening beyond 24 h through the middle of the week. In 4-5 days, 
the models suggest a more favorable upper-level flow pattern, which 
could allow for some re-strengthening. The latest NHC forecast 
remains near the upper-end of the model intensity guidance, though 
has been lowered slightly at all forecast times. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 17.1N 162.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 18.3N 163.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 20.0N 163.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 21.7N 164.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 22.6N 164.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  01/0000Z 22.8N 164.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 23.1N 165.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 23.7N 167.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  03/1200Z 24.1N 170.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Adams
 
Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number 32 (2026)