Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number 29

Public advisory

Central Pacific Hurricane Center · issued Sep 27, 8:33 PM UTC · source


000
WTPA32 PHFO 272033
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number  29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 27 2026
 
...NOLO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 159.3W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM SE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to
French Frigate Shoals.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
Additional watches may be required for portions of the 
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nolo was located 
near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 159.3 West. Nolo is moving 
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest 
is expected by tonight, with this general motion continuing through 
Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Nolo will remain well 
south and southwest of the main Hawaiian Islands but will approach 
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument in a couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Nolo is a category 3 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Nolo is forecast to 
strengthen further and reach its peak intensity by Monday. 
In about 2 days, a gradual weakening trend is expected to 
begin.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 
966 mb (28.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nolo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO.
 
WIND: Strong and gusty winds are possible for the main Hawaiian 
Islands through this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible in 
the Hurricane Watch area in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National 
Monument by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by 
Tuesday. Strong and gusty winds are expected for all the Hawaiian 
Island through today.

SURF: Swells generated by Nolo are affecting exposed east- and 
south-facing shores of the main Hawaiian Islands through the next 
few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions. Large surf associated with Nolo will affect 
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument beginning on Monday. 
These large waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying atolls, 
especially from French Frigate Shoals to Nihoa. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Kelly
 

Forecast discussion · corrected

Central Pacific Hurricane Center · issued Sep 27, 8:52 PM UTC · source


000
WTPA42 PHFO 272052 CCA
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 27 2026

Corrected typo in the first paragraph

The inner core of Nolo has continued to show signs of improvement, 
as the eye has become better defined over the last several hours. 
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found flight level winds 
around 106 kt, which supports surface winds around 95 kt. In 
addition, the aircraft found that the pressure has been decreasing 
over the course the flight. A dropsonde into the northern eyewall 
observed a 500 m layer average of 106 kt. Furthermore, the objective 
intensity estimates are in the range of 87-119 kt. Based on the 
current data, the initial intensity has been raised to 100 kt for 
this advisory.
 
The cyclone is moving mainly westward or 280/10 kt. Nolo is expected 
to continue to move on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge 
for the next 24 h or so. Afterwards, the hurricane will turn 
northwestward due to the influence of a mid- to upper-level low. 
Near the end of the forecast period, Nolo should then turn toward 
the west again, as Nolo moves around the northern side of the low. 
The official track forecast is similar to the previous one just some 
minor adjustments based on the HCCA and the GDMI forecast aids.
 
Nolo is expected to remain in a favorable environment with low wind 
shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. This should allow for 
continued intensification for the next 24 hours. After 36-48 h, 
gradual weakening is expected as the SHIPS model outputs indicate 
that wind shear will increase in the 36-96 h period due to the 
interaction with the upper-level low. Beyond 96 h, the wind shear 
may relax again and this could allow some restrengthening. The NHC 
intensity forecast is still on the high end of the guidance 
envelope, however it is in line with the HCCA forecast aid in the 
short term. 
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Strong and gusty winds are expected across the main Hawaiian 
Islands through today.

2. Large and damaging waves with high surf are likely along portions 
of the east-ward facing beaches of the main Hawaiian Islands through 
today. Southward facing beaches are likely to see increased swell 
and surf during the next few days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 16.2N 159.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 16.5N 160.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 17.6N 162.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 19.3N 163.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 21.0N 163.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  30/0600Z 22.1N 163.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 22.5N 164.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 22.8N 166.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 23.2N 168.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Kelly