Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number 25

000
WTPA32 PHFO 262048
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number  25
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 26 2026
 
...NOLO MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...
...GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND LARGE WAVES CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 156.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Hurricane Watch for Hawaii County has been discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Maui County
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor
the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nolo was located 
near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 156.0 West. Nolo is moving 
toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and is expected to accelerate 
westward through the weekend. Then, a turn toward the northwest and 
north-northwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast 
track, the center of Nolo will remain well south and southwest of 
the main Hawaiian Islands.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Nolo is predicted to strengthen into a major hurricane on 
Sunday and peak in intensity by early Monday. Thereafter, steady 
weakening is expected.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
 
The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 977 mb (28.85 
inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nolo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring on portions of the Big
Island and are possible in Maui County in areas of steep terrain.
Strong and gusty winds are possible for all of the Hawaiian Islands
through the weekend.
 
RAINFALL: For the eastern and southern portions of the Big Island,
Nolo will produce additional rainfall totals 3 to 6 inches, bringing
storm totals to 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25
inches. This rainfall could produce significant, life-threatening
flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
For the western portions of the Big Island, rainfall totals of 1 to
2 inches are expected. For eastern Maui, additional rainfall totals
of 1 to 2 inches are expected, bringing storm totals to 4 to 8
inches. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible,
especially in areas of high terrain.
 
Across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, maximum storm total
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Nolo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: The threat of significant storm surge has diminished,
yet water levels along the coast will remain elevated through
upcoming tide cycles due to persistent, dangerous wave action.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Nolo are affecting exposed east- and
south-facing shores of the Big Island and are expected to spread
westward and build through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

000
WTPA42 PHFO 262049
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  25
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 26 2026
 
Nolo still appears to be struggling with intrusions of dry mid-level 
air. After the Air Force Hurricane Hunters reported the eyewall was 
closed earlier this morning, recent vortex messages and radar images 
from South Point (PHWA) show the eyewall is once again open to the 
north. In addition, the minimum central pressure has risen slightly 
to 977 mb, and the peak 700-mb flight-level wind measured by the 
aircraft was 83 kt in the northwest quadrant. Based on these 
developments, the initial intensity is adjusted to 80 kt.
 
Recent aircraft and radar fixes indicate the hurricane is now slowly 
moving just south of due west (260/4 kt). A faster westward motion 
away from the Big Island of Hawaii is expected during the next day 
or so as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of Hawaii. An 
upper-level trough currently to the northwest of the Hawaiian 
Islands is expected to amplify early next week, which should cause 
Nolo to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest on Monday and 
Tuesday. The models agree that Nolo will be clear of the main 
Hawaiian Islands by the time it makes this turn. On day 5, Nolo is 
forecast to resume a westward motion along the southern extent of a 
building ridge over the central Pacific. This track forecast is 
similar to but slightly faster than the previous prediction, 
generally falling between the latest TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

Nolo is moving westward toward a pocket of higher ocean heat content 
southwest of the Hawaiian Islands, and the vertical wind shear is 
forecast to weaken during the next 24-36 h. If the hurricane can 
solidify a more resilient inner core, several skillful models 
(including Google DeepMind, HAFS-A/B, and HCCA) suggest that Nolo 
could intensify into a major hurricane on Sunday or Monday. An 
alternate scenario is that continued dry air intrusions cause Nolo 
to miss its window before increasingly southwesterly shear beyond 48 
h induces a weakening trend. For now, the NHC intensity forecast 
continues to favor the stronger GDMI and HCCA solutions, which both 
have performed well for this event so far. Then, steady weakening 
is anticipated during the 60-120 h forecast period, generally 
following a blend of the HCCA and IVCN aids. 

Now that Nolo is moving away from the Big Island of Hawaii, the 
Hurricane Watch has been discontinued, but the Tropical Storm 
Warning remains in effect for Hawaii County. 
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Nolo has begun to move westward away from the Big Island of 
Hawaii, where tropical storm conditions are occurring and will 
continue into tonight, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
2. Periods of heavy rain are expected to expand across the Big 
Island and eastern Maui through the weekend. Significant, 
life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in 
areas of steep terrain across the eastern and southern portions of 
the Big Island and Maui. Across the remainder of Hawaii, lesser 
rainfall totals are expected.  
 
3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the Big
Island's coastline through the weekend.
 
4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County, where 
tropical-storm-force gusts are occurring in areas of steep terrain. 
Strong and gusty winds are expected for all of the Hawaiian Islands 
through the weekend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 16.7N 156.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 16.7N 157.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 16.8N 158.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 17.2N 160.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 18.4N 162.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  29/0600Z 20.2N 163.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 21.9N 164.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 23.2N 166.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 23.0N 168.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart