Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number 24

000
WTPA32 PHFO 261456
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number  24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sat Sep 26 2026
 
...NOLO STILL MEANDERING SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...
...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND LARGE WAVES EXPECTED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 155.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Maui County
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor
the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nolo was located 
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 155.5 West. Nolo is nearly 
stationary. A westward motion with increasing forward speed is 
forecast later today and Sunday. A turn toward the northwest and 
north-northwest is expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast 
track, the center of Nolo will remain well south and southwest of 
the main Hawaiian Islands.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Nolo is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane tonight 
or early Sunday and peak in intensity by early Monday. Thereafter, 
some weakening is expected.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
 
The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 976 mb 
(28.82 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nolo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring and hurricane-force
gusts are possible in portions of the warning area in areas of
steep terrain.
 
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area beginning today. Gusts to tropical storm force are occurring in
Maui County in areas of steep terrain.
 
Regardless of the exact track of Nolo, strong and gusty winds are
possible for all of the Hawaiian Islands through the weekend.
 
RAINFALL: For the eastern and southern portions of the Big Island,
Nolo will produce additional rainfall totals 4 to 8 inches with
isolated totals of 10 inches, bringing storm totals to 10 to 20
inches with maximum amounts of 25 inches. This rainfall could
produce significant, life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
For the western portions of the Big Island, rainfall totals of 1 to
3 inches are expected. For eastern Maui, additional rainfall totals
of 1 to 2 inches are expected, bringing storm totals to 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches. Life-threatening flooding
and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of high terrain.
 
Across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, maximum storm total
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Nolo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Hawaii County...1 to 3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast and will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?peakSurge.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Nolo are affecting exposed east- and
south-facing shores of the Big Island and are expected to spread
westward and build through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

000
WTPA42 PHFO 261457
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sat Sep 26 2026

The radar and satellite presentation of Nolo has not improved since
the previous advisory. The eyewall has opened up at times on the
north side, and a pronounced dry slot is wrapping around the eastern
side of the circulation. Previous aircraft data indicated the
central pressure was holding steady around 975 mb. For now, the
initial intensity is held at a likely generous 90 kt, in best
agreement with recent UW-CIMSS D-PRINT and SATCON estimates. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recently entered Nolo
and will provide some updated, in situ information about the
structure and intensity of the hurricane shortly.
 
Nolo continues to meander to the south of the Big Island of Hawaii.
Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level ridge building to the north of
the Hawaiian Islands, which should cause Nolo to begin moving
westward later this morning and accelerate westward through the
weekend. Early next week, a mid-level trough currently to the
northwest of Hawaii will dig southward and steer Nolo toward the
northwest and north-northwest on Monday and Tuesday. Then, a
westward turn is anticipated on Wednesday as a mid-level ridge
builds to the north of Nolo. The track models are in good agreement
on keeping the core of Nolo well to the south and southwest of the
main Hawaiian Islands during the next several days. No major changes
were made to the NHC forecast, which remains close to the simple
consensus (TVCN) that has verified well for this event so far.
 
The hurricane is showing some ill effects of easterly shear and dry
air, and its lack of forward motion could be resulting in some
upwelling of cooler water. But as Nolo starts moving westward, the
vertical wind shear is forecast to weaken, and the SSTs are slightly
warmer along the track. So, strengthening is still anticipated
during the next couple of days, and the NHC forecast calls for Nolo
to become a major hurricane in 24 h. The near-term intensity
forecast still lies on the high end of the guidance, favoring the
HAFS-A, Google DeepMind, and HCCA solutions. After 48 h, increasing
southwesterly shear associated with the trough should induce a
weakening trend. This update shows a faster rate of weakening from
60-96 h, following the latest multi-model consensus trends.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Nolo is expected to remain south of the Big Island of Hawaii
today before turning westward and moving away from the island.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring on the Big Island,
especially in areas of steep terrain, and hurricane conditions are
possible in those areas today.
 
2. Periods of heavy rain are expected to expand across the Big
Island and eastern Maui through the weekend. Significant,
life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in
areas of steep terrain across the eastern and southern portions of
the Big Island and Maui. Across the remainder of Hawaii, lesser
rainfall totals are expected.
 
3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the Big
Island's coastline this weekend.
 
4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County, where
gusts to tropical storm force are already occurring in some areas
of steep terrain. Regardless of the exact track of Nolo, strong and
gusty winds are expected for all of the Hawaiian Islands through the
weekend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 16.9N 155.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 16.9N 156.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 16.8N 157.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 16.8N 159.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 17.7N 161.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  29/0000Z 19.3N 163.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 21.0N 163.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 23.3N 165.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  01/1200Z 23.5N 168.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart