Public advisory
Central Pacific Hurricane Center · issued Sep 26, 8:50 AM UTC · source
000 WTPA32 PHFO 260850 TCPCP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number 23 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 25 2026 ...NOLO STILL NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 155.3W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Hawaii County A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Hawaii County A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Maui County A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nolo was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 155.3 West. Nolo is nearly stationary. A westward motion with increasing forward speed is forecast Saturday and Sunday. A turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Nolo will remain well south and southwest of the main Hawaiian Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Nolo is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane on Saturday and peak in intensity by late Sunday. Weakening is expected on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nolo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the warning area in areas of steep terrain. Hurricane conditions are possible Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area beginning on Saturday. Gusts to tropical storm force are occurring in Maui County in areas of steep terrain. Regardless of the exact track of Nolo, strong and gusty winds are possible for all of the Hawaiian Islands through the weekend. RAINFALL: For the eastern and southern portions of the Big Island, Nolo will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 16 inches. This rainfall could produce significant, life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For the western portions of the Big Island, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches are expected. For eastern Maui, rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches are expected. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of high terrain. Across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, maximum rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Nolo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Hawaii County...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast and will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?peakSurge. SURF: Swells generated by Nolo are affecting exposed east- and south-facing shores of the Big Island and are expected to spread westward and build through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM HST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Berg