Public advisory
Central Pacific Hurricane Center · issued Sep 25, 8:55 PM UTC · source
000 WTPA32 PHFO 252055 TCPCP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number 21 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 25 2026 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AND DAMAGING WAVES LIKELY ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII OVER THE WEEKEND FROM NOLO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 155.4W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Hawaii County A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Hawaii County A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Maui County A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 24-36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36-48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Nolo was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 155.4 West. Nolo is moving toward the north- northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn towards the west with an increase in forward speed is forecast Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nolo will remain well south of the main Hawaiian Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Nolo is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane this weekend, and could further intensify early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nolo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin by tonight in the warning area, with hurricane conditions possible by early Saturday, particularly in areas of steep terrain. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area beginning on Saturday. RAINFALL: For the eastern and southern portions of the Big Island, Nolo will produce rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with maximum amounts of 25 inches. This rainfall could produce catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For the western portions of the Big Island, rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches are expected. For Maui, rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are expected. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of high terrain. Across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches are expected with isolated flooding possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Nolo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Hawaii County...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast and will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?peakSurge. SURF: Swells generated by Nolo are expected to reach exposed east- and south-facing shores of the Big Island today, spreading westward and building through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Blake