Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number 18

000
WTPA32 PHFO 250250
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number  18
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Thu Sep 24 2026
 
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FIND THAT NOLO HAS BECOME A HURRICANE...
...HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 155.9W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Maui County
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor
the progress of this system as additional watches or warnings
could be required.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nolo was located 
by Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 15.1 North, 
longitude 155.9 West. Nolo is moving toward the north-northeast near 
5 mph (7 km/h). A faster motion to the north-northeast is expected 
later tonight through Friday, followed by a sharp westward turn on 
Saturday just to the south of the Big Island.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Additional steady to rapid intensification is 
forecast, and Nolo is forecast to become a major hurricane by this 
weekend.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
 
The minimum central pressure measured by aircraft dropsonde data is 
984 mb (29.06 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nolo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin by late
Friday in the warning area, with hurricane conditions possible by
early Saturday.
 
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area beginning on Saturday.
 
RAINFALL: For the eastern and southern portions of the Big Island,
Nolo will produce rainfall totals of 15 to 30 inches with maximum
amounts of 35 inches.  This rainfall could produce catastrophic
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For the western portions of the Big Island, rainfall totals of 5 to
8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are expected. For Maui,
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches
are expected. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible,
especially in areas of high terrain.
 
Across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, rainfall totals of 1
to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches are expected with
isolated flooding possible.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Nolo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Hawaii County...1 to 3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast and will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, 
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, 
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?peakSurge.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Nolo are expected to reach exposed east-
and south-facing shores of the Big Island by Friday, spreading
westward and building through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

000
WTPA42 PHFO 250252
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  18
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Thu Sep 24 2026
 
Nolo's structure on satellite imagery continues to gradually 
improve with a banding-type eye trying to develop on visible 
satellite imagery. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have been 
flying through Nolo this afternoon, and found a peak flight-level 
wind of 71 kt and a minimum central pressure down to 984 mb in their 
most recent fix. These values are enough to upgrade Nolo to a 
hurricane this advisory, with an initial intensity of 65 kt. 
 
The storm is finally moving more consistently to the north-northeast 
with an estimated motion at 020 degrees at 4 kt. There is little 
change to the track reasoning this cycle, with a deep-layer trough 
located to the northwest of Nolo helping to steer it slowly to the 
north-northeast over the next 24-36 h. Thereafter, this trough cuts 
off to the west of the Hawaiian islands and moves westward out of 
the way, allowing mid-level ridging to build back in north of Nolo. 
The net result of this synoptic change is that Nolo is expected to 
make a sharp turn to the west, or even west-southwest in the 48-72 h 
time frame. However, the aforementioned cutoff low still limits how 
far west this mid-level ridging is able to extend, and Nolo will 
likely begin to gain latitude in the day 4-5 day time frame. The 
track guidance has made a rather substantial southward shift 
compared to the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been 
shifted southward, though it remains on the northern side of the 
guidance envelope. This track forecast lies closest to the Google 
DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) which is actually a northern outlier 
this cycle, so it's possible future southward adjustments may be 
necessary.

Even though Nolo is now a hurricane, the Air Force Reconnaissance 
aircraft has yet to report a closed eyewall in either of its fixes 
through the hurricane, and the wind field is a little bit on the 
broader side. However, environmental conditions appear quite 
favorable with low shear, sufficently warm sea-surface temperatures 
and enough deep-layer moisture to support robust intensification. 
The NHC intensity forecast continues to forecast significant 
intensification, and now shows a peak intensity of 115 kt as Nolo 
turns westward in the 48-72 h time frame. This intensity forecast 
is a blend of the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) 
and HAFS-A/B runs, even though the HCCA remains the highest outlier 
in the intensity guidance this cycle. At long range, vertical wind 
shear is expected to increase, and the NHC intensity shows 
weakening beginning by day 5. 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Nolo is expected to pass near or just south of the Big Island of 
Hawaii on Saturday as a major hurricane.  Tropical storm conditions 
are expected to begin on the Big Island Friday night with hurricane 
conditions possible on Saturday, particularly in areas of steep 
terrain.  Residents should follow advice given by local officials, 
including evacuating if told to do so.
 
2. The time to finish preparations for significant heavy rain and 
flooding impacts on the Big Island is now as heavy rain increases in 
both coverage and intensity today and Friday. Periods of heavy rain 
are expected to continue across the Big Island and Maui through the 
weekend. Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are 
possible, especially in areas of steep terrain across the eastern 
and southern portions of the Big Island and Maui. Across the 
remainder of Hawaii, lesser rainfall totals are expected, with 
isolated flooding possible. 
 
3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the
Big Island's coastline into the weekend.
 
4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County where
tropical storm conditions are possible beginning on Saturday.
Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plans
in place.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 15.1N 155.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 15.7N 155.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 16.6N 155.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 17.1N 155.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 17.0N 156.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  27/1200Z 16.9N 157.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 16.9N 159.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 18.6N 163.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 21.7N 164.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin