Tropical Storm Nolo Advisory Number 17

000
WTPA32 PHFO 242055
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nolo Advisory Number  17
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2026
 
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY...
...NOLO NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 156.1W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Hawaii County.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Maui County, including
the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Maui County
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor
the progress of this system as additional watches or warnings
could be required.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 156.1 West. Nolo is
moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h).  A faster motion to
the north or north-northeast is expected later today through 
Friday, followed by a sharp westward turn on Saturday in the 
vicinity of the Big Island.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Nolo is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight and a 
major hurricane by this weekend.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nolo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin by late 
Friday in the warning area, with hurricane conditions possible by 
early Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch 
area beginning on Saturday.
 
RAINFALL: For the Big Island, Nolo will produce rainfall totals of 
15 to 30 inches with maximum amounts of 35 inches.  This rainfall 
could produce catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain.

For Maui, rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 
20 inches are expected. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are 
possible, especially in areas of high terrain. 

Across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, rainfall totals of 1 
to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches are expected with 
isolated flooding possible.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Nolo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Hawaii County...1 to 3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?peakSurge.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Nolo are expected to reach exposed east
and south-facing shores of the Big Island by Friday, spreading
westward and building through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 

000
WTPA42 PHFO 242056
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  17
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2026
 
Nolo continues to become better organized, with a ragged eye on 
satellite imagery and a primitive eyewall noted on the latest 
microwave pass.  The initial intensity is set to 60 kt, at the high 
end of the various estimates due to the improved organization on 
conventional satellite and microwave imagery.  An Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the storm this 
afternoon for a more precise estimate.
 
The storm has been moving erratically during the day, but appears to 
finally be moving slowly northward.  There is no change the synoptic 
reasoning with a mid-latitude trough near the northwestern Hawaiian 
Islands causing Nolo to accelerate north-northeastward during the 
next day or so.  The trough should move away by the weekend and be 
replaced by a ridge, forcing a sharp westward turn on Saturday.  
The northward trend during the last couple of model cycles has 
stopped and is actually trending southward, led by the ECMWF model.  
The new forecast is a touch south of the last one, but really all 
these track changes are quite small.  This remains an uncertain 
forecast with some model ensemble tracks still over the Big Island, 
though most are south.  This forecast necessitates a Tropical Storm 
Warning for the Big Island, and a closer track could substantially 
increase the threat of damaging winds, particularly over higher 
terrain, along exposed ridges, and in areas downwind of the ridges.

Rapid intensification is expected during the next day or so now 
that an inner core has formed, combined with warm warm SSTs, low 
shear and high mid-level moisture.  Nolo is likely to become a 
hurricane by tonight and reach major hurricane strength as it nears 
the Big Island on Saturday.  The new forecast is similar to the 
previous one for the first few days, close to the HCCA aid.  At long 
range, vertical wind shear is forecast to cause Nolo to weaken, and 
the NHC intensity prediction is lowered at that time. 
 
Key Messages:

1. Nolo is expected to pass near or just south of the Big Island of 
Hawaii on Saturday as a major hurricane.  Tropical storm conditions 
are expected to begin on the Big Island Friday night with 
hurricane conditions possible on Saturday, particularly in areas of 
steep terrain.  Residents should follow advice given by local 
officials, including evacuating if told to do so. 

2. The time to finish preparations for significant heavy rain and 
flooding impacts on the Big Island is now as heavy rain increases in 
both coverage and intensity today and Friday. Periods of heavy rain 
are expected to continue across the Big Island and Maui through the 
weekend. Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are 
possible, especially in areas of steep terrain across the Big Island 
and Maui. Across the remainder of Hawaii, lesser rainfall totals are 
expected, with isolated flooding possible.  

3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the 
Big Island's coastline into the weekend.

4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County where 
tropical storm conditions are possible beginning on Saturday.  
Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest 
forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plans 
in place. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 14.9N 156.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 15.4N 156.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 16.4N 155.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 17.2N 155.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 17.7N 156.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  27/0600Z 17.8N 157.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 17.8N 159.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 19.5N 163.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 22.5N 165.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake