Tropical Storm Nolo Advisory Number 16

000
WTPA32 PHFO 241449
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nolo Advisory Number  16
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2026
 
...NOLO STRENGTHENING...
...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BEGIN LATE TODAY OVER THE BIG ISLAND...

 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 156.2W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. 

Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor
the progress of this system as additional watches or warnings 
could be required.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 156.2 West. Nolo is
stationary but is expected to move to the north or north-northeast 
later today through Friday, followed by a sharp westward turn by 
Saturday in the vicinity of the Big Island.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Nolo is forecast to become a hurricane by 
tonight and could become a major hurricane by the weekend.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nolo can be found in the can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO
header WTPA42 PHFO.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area starting
as early as Friday night.
 
RAINFALL: For the Big Island, Nolo will produce rainfall totals of 
15 to 20 inches with maximum amounts of 35 inches.  This
rainfall could produce catastrophic life-threatening flooding and 
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For Maui, rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 
20 inches are expected. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides 
are possible, especially in areas of high terrain. 

Across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, rainfall totals of 1 
to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches are expected with 
isolated flooding possible. 

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Nolo, 
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic 
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Hawaii County...1 to 3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?peakSurge.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Nolo are expected to reach exposed east
and south-facing shores of the Big Island by Friday, spreading
westward and building through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 

000
WTPA42 PHFO 241450
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  16
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2026

Satellite images indicate that Nolo is gradually becoming better
organized, with very deep convection in a curved band on the
southern and western side of the circulation.  Additionally, a GPM
pass from overnight indicated that an inner core is forming,
although the eastern side is fragmented.  Intensity estimates are
rising, and the current wind speed is set to 50 kt as a blend of
the lower subjective and higher objective values.
 
Nolo has not moved much during the last several hours but should
begin to move northward and north-northeastward later today due to
a mid-latitude trough dropping over the northwestern Hawaiian
Islands.  The trough is forecast to move westward by Saturday with
a building ridge north of the main Hawaiian Islands, causing a
sharp westward turn this weekend.  The big question is how close
does Nolo get before making that turn, with notable run-to-run
inconsistencies in much of the guidance.  Similar to the last
cycle, the bulk of the models have shifted slightly northward, and
the new NHC forecast is moved in that direction.  This remains a 
more uncertain forecast than normal given the large unresolved
north-south spread, with other possible complicating terrain 
influences of the Big Island (like we saw with Hurricane Lala last 
month).  Therefore, the long-range portion of the forecast is 
essentially unchanged.
 
With the formation of an inner core, conditions appear to be coming
together for rapid intensification given the other conducive
environmental factors of warm SSTs, low shear and high mid-level
moisture.  Nolo is likely to become a hurricane by tonight and 
reach major hurricane strength as it nears the Big Island on 
Saturday.  The new forecast is raised from the previous one, just 
below the HCCA aid, which has done well this year in these 
strengthening episodes.  Note that a track closer to the Big Island 
could substantially increase the threat of damaging winds, 
particularly over higher terrain, along exposed ridges, and in areas 
downwind of the ridges.
 
Key Messages:

1. Nolo is expected to strengthen into a hurricane today as it 
moves northward to north-northeastward, potentially making its 
closest approach to the Big Island of Hawaii as a major hurricane on 
Saturday. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Big Island, 
and residents there should follow advice given by local officials, 
including evacuating if told to do so. A Hurricane Warning will 
likely be required for the Big Island later today.

2. The time to finish preparations for significant heavy rain 
and flooding impacts on the Big Island is now as heavy rain 
increases in both coverage and intensity today and Friday. Periods 
of heavy rain are expected to continue across the Big Island and 
Maui through the weekend. Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding 
and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep terrain 
across the Big Island and Maui. Across the remainder of Hawaii, 
lesser rainfall totals are expected, with isolated flooding 
possible.  

3. Large and damaging waves are possible along portions of the 
Big Island's coastline into the weekend.

4. Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should closely monitor the 
latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness 
plans in place. Tropical Storm Watches may be required for other 
islands later today or on Friday.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 14.9N 156.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 15.2N 156.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 16.1N 155.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 17.1N 155.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 17.8N 155.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  27/0000Z 18.0N 156.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 18.1N 158.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 19.0N 162.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 21.6N 164.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake