Three-C, advisory 1
Tropical Depression Three-C Advisory Number 1
Public advisory
Central Pacific Hurricane Center · public advisory 1 · issued Oct 25, 2:50 PM UTCsource ↗
000 WTPA33 PHFO 251450 TCPCP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three-C Advisory Number 1 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP032026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sun Oct 25 2026 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC JUST EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 179.3W ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM W OF JOHNSTON ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Johnston Atoll should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-C was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 179.3 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and a general eastward motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight intensification is possible later today and the depression could become a tropical storm over the next day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Forecast discussion
Central Pacific Hurricane Center · forecast discussion 1 · issued Oct 25, 2:53 PM UTCsource ↗
000 WTPA43 PHFO 251453 TCDCP3 Tropical Depression Three-C Discussion Number 1 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP032026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sun Oct 25 2026 The system we have been monitoring near the International Date Line that was recently designated CP94 has become better organized early this morning. Showers and thunderstorm activity began to show signs of organization late yesterday, and an overnight scatterometer pass indicated that a small but well-defined circulation had formed. In addition, there was a WSF-M microwave pass at 0532 UTC, which showed curved bands were present on the 37-GHz channel, especially on the northern semi-circle of the system. Since that time, Himawari-9 and GOES-18 satellite imagery shows the system exhibiting a bursting convective pattern close to or just to the north of the estimated center. Subjective Dvorak estimates from both JTWC and Honolulu were T1.5/25 kt. However, the earlier scatterometer pass also showed a peak wind retrieval of 32 kt. Based on the system's structural improvement on satellite imagery overnight, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Three-C at this time. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, though this could be conservative given the earlier scatterometer data. The depression's initial motion is east-northeastward, or 075/6 kt. The system is currently embedded in deep-layer westerly flow, both from an equatorward low-level westerly wind burst, and an upper-level westerly flow from an approaching short-wave trough to the north of the depression. These combined features should maintain the system on an eastward track for the next several days. The initial NHC track forecast blends the latest global model guidance from the GFS and ECMWF solutions. This track will take the tropical cyclone as a weakening system near Johnson Atoll in about 60-72 h. It is worth noting there is a lot of spread in the along-track direction, likely related to uncertainty in the vertical steering depth the system will feel over the next few days, so this first track forecast is a little lower confidence than usual. The depression could already be close to tropical storm intensity given the earlier scatterometer data, and environmental conditions appear mostly favorable for the next 12-24 h with deep-layer shear in the 5-15 kt range with plenty of warm water and deep-layer moisture. However, the approaching mid-latitude trough to its north is expected to soon increase the westerly shear over the system, likely limiting the intensity of the tropical cyclone. Thus, only some slight intensification is shown over the next 12-24 h, with the storm plateauing as a 35 kt tropical storm through the early part of this week. By mid-week, SHIPS guidance shows this westerly shear increasing above 40 kt, and most of the guidance responds by showing the system quickly becoming separated from its deep convection as the circulation becomes increasingly elongated. The initial NHC intensity forecast therefore shows the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low in about 72 h, and dissipating shortly thereafter. This forecast is in good agreement with the global model guidance. Based on the initial track and intensity forecast, no watches are required for Johnston Atoll at this time, though interests there should continue to monitor the latest forecast updates related to this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 14.6N 179.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 14.7N 178.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 14.7N 177.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 14.4N 175.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 14.6N 173.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 15.5N 171.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 16.5N 169.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
