Fay, advisory 37

000
WTNT31 KNHC 290849
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
500 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2026
 
...FAY CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 46.8W
ABOUT 1465 MI...2360 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was 
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 46.8 West. Fay is moving 
toward the southwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A southwest to 
west-southwest motion, along with a further increase in forward 
speed, are expected over the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some weakening is expected during the next day or so, and 
Fay is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within 36 h.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch
 

000
WTNT41 KNHC 290850
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
500 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2026

Proxy-visible satellite imagery shows that the convection around Fay 
has increasingly become more sheared in the last several hours. 
Infrared imagery does still show some of the convection has cloud 
tops near -70 C. In addition, the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was 
2.0/30 KT, and the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are 
in the range of 33-43 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been 
held at 35 kt for this advisory. 
 
The storm is still moving toward the southwest with an estimated 
initial motion of 235/11 kt. Fay is expected to keep a general 
southwestward to west-southwestward motion for the next couple of 
days as the cyclone is guided by the flow along the southern 
periphery of a mid-level ridge situated over the central Atlantic. 
The current NHC track forecast is almost identical to the previous 
one with just a few minor adjustments based on the HCCA and GDMI 
forecast aids.

With the convection expected to pulsate for the next couple of days, 
the intensity will also fluctuate as well. However that convection 
will likely become increasingly separated from the center as the 
SHIPS guidance indicates increasing vertical wind shear over the 
couple of days. Based on the global models, Fay will struggle to 
maintain deep convection as it moves into a more stable air mass and 
an area of upper-level convergence. The current NHC intensity 
forecast is based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast guidance and Fay is 
still expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in a day or so.  
The global models show the system degenerating into a trough 
afterwards. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 25.0N  46.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 24.0N  48.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 23.1N  50.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 22.7N  52.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/0600Z 22.6N  54.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz